Current and future developments in Syria are written in her history.
It is also not necessary to go back too far, her recent history speaks for itself.
The Syrian people, wishing to free themselves from the French colonial rule
of the years 1920 – 1946, ceased the opportunity in 1943, following the German
occupation of France, and started an uprising.
In the preceeding two years, France had enough, but as she did not want to leave Syria
without securing some advantages for herself, in May 1945 the uprising against French
colonial administration spread to the major cyties such as Damascu s, Aleppo, Humus and Ham.
By 1946, France could not suppress the country-wide uprising and was eventually forced to
withdraw from Syria completely.
The newly born Syrian state under the leadership of Shukru el- Kuvvetly, was faced with a massive
battle of power and self-interest. Once the military and economic power of French colonialism was
gone, independence threw the country into a religious and ethnical turmoil and yet another civil war.
The result of these developments was a series of militaty take-overs.
Syria went through these developoments only 50-60 years ago. A serious struggle among the
rich families of Aleppo who controlled the military, the centuries long, influential politicians of Damscus,
tribal leaders in rural areas, Alevis, Sunnis, Christians and the influential Nusayris took place in
Following the end of the Ottoman and French rule, a Syrian state under the name of “Syria” came
into being as a political entity, however, never managed to become a homogenious, nation-state based on mutual
undertsanding and power- sharing.
Exactly for this reason, when Bashir Assad goes, the events of half a century ago will emerge just as
in the past. This is Syria’s inevitable future.
It is also obvious that the Baathists will not return to power. Sooner or later, the new Syrian
Administration will want to punish all the Baathists captured.
Russia is fully aware of all this, and hence in view of above mentioned factors, will not wish to loose
her naval base in Latakia wich was achieved by the Syrian-Russian friendship agreements between
Hafiz Assad and Russia. Particulary in the face of the oil- and gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranian,
Russia would not wish to leave this area.
The reason for the increased military presence in the Eastern Mediterranian, is not the Syrian
state of war but the need to safeguard and controll the energy deposits.
In this respect, the only place where Russia could obtain a foot hold is Southern Cyprus.
The economic collapse of the Greek side, has served the Russian appetite in thinking that she can buy
certain previllages in Southern Cyprus.
Russia started with Greece first by buying into Greek companies dealing with energy, and by
placing her men into leading managemnet positions. Russsia is now offering a five billion euro
deal for the strategic control of the oil- and gas pipeline between Greece and Cyprus.
The Greek Cypriot side, following her exclusive territorial rights agreement with Israel,
Andreas Papandreou- military Airfield for the French, Russian naval bases in Mari and Zigi,
and previllages for Iran, has turned into the “Lady with Seven Husbands”.
If our Southern neighbours eventually fall into a minority position within their own country,
it should not surprise us.